U.S. evolves on same-sex marriage

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• The president and the nation have shifted perspectives on same-sex marriage


• Supreme Court ruling on California's same-sex marriage ban a critical test


• Growing public support for gay marriage give proponents hope for change

Washington (CNN) -- The nation's growing acceptance of same-sex marriage has happened in slow and painstaking moves, eventually building into a momentum that is sweeping even the most unlikely of converts.

Even though he said in 2008 that he could only support civil unions for same-sex couples, President Barack Obama nonetheless enjoyed strong support among the gay community. He disappointed many with his conspicuously subdued first-term response to the same-sex marriage debate.

Last year, after Vice President Joe Biden announced his support, the president then said his position had evolved and he, too, supported same-sex marriage.

So it was no small matter when on Thursday the Obama administration formally expressed its support of same-sex marriage in a court brief weighing in on California's Proposition 8, which bans same-sex weddings. The administration's effort was matched by at least 100 high-profile Republicans — some of whom in elections past depended on gay marriage as a wedge issue guaranteed to rally the base — who signed onto a brief supporting gay couples to legally wed.

Obama on same-sex marriage: Everyone is equal

Then there are the polls that show that an increasing number of Americans now support same-sex marriage. These polls show that nearly half of the nation's Catholics and white, mainstream Protestants and more than half of the nation's women, liberals and political moderates all support same-sex marriage.

According to Pew Research Center polling, 48% of Americans support same-sex marriage with 43% opposed. Back in 2001, 57% opposed same-sex marriage while 35% supported it.

In last year's presidential election, same-sex marriage scarcely raised a ripple. That sea change is not lost on the president.

"The same evolution I've gone through is the same evolution the country as a whole has gone through," Obama told reporters on Friday.

Craig Rimmerman, professor of public policy and political science at Hobart and William Smith colleges says there is history at work here and the administration is wise to get on the right side.

"There is no doubt that President Obama's shifting position on Proposition 8 and same-sex marriage more broadly is due to his desire to situate himself on the right side of history with respect to the fight over same-sex marriage," said Rimmerman, author of "From Identity to Politics: The Lesbian and Gay Movements in the United States."

"I also think that broader changes in public opinion showing greater support for same-sex marriage, especially among young people, but in the country at large as well, has created a cultural context for Obama to alter his views."

For years, Obama had frustrated many in the gay community by not offering full-throated support of same-sex marriage. However, the president's revelation last year that conversations with his daughters and friends led him to change his mind gave many in that community hope.

Last year, the Obama administration criticized a measure in North Carolina that banned same-sex marriage and made civil unions illegal. The president took the same position on a similar Minnesota proposal.

Obama administration officials point to what they see as the administration's biggest accomplishment in the gay rights cause: repealing "don't ask, don't tell," the military's ban on openly gay and lesbian members serving in the forces.

Then there was the president's inaugural address which placed the gay community's struggle for equality alongside similar civil rights fights by women and African-Americans.

"Our journey is not complete until our gay brothers and sisters are treated like anyone else under the law, for if we are truly created equal, then surely the love we commit to one another must be equal, as well," Obama said in his address after being sworn in.

In offering its support and asserting in the brief that "prejudice may not be the basis for differential treatment under the law," the Obama administration is setting up a high stakes political and constitutional showdown at the U.S. Supreme Court over a fast-evolving and contentious issue.

The justices will hear California's Proposition 8 case in March. That case and another appeal over the federal Defense of Marriage Act will produce blockbuster rulings from the justices in coming months.

Beyond the legal wranglings there is a strong social and historic component, one that has helped open the way for the administration to push what could prove to be a social issue that defines Obama's second term legacy, Rimmerman said.

The nation is redefining itself on this issue, as well.

Pew survey: Changing attitudes on gay marriage

The changes are due, in part, to generational shifts. Younger people show a higher level of support than their older peers, according to Pew polling "Millennials are almost twice as likely as the Silent Generation to support same-sex marriage."

"As people have grown up with people having the right to marry the generational momentum has been very, very strong," said Evan Wolfson, president of Freedom to Marry, a gay rights organization.

That is not to say that there isn't still opposition.

Pew polling found that most Republicans and conservatives remain opposed to same-sex marriage. In 2001, 21% of Republicans were supportive; in 2012 that number nudged slightly to 25%.

Conservative groups expressed dismay at the administration's same-sex marriage support.

"President Obama, who was against same-sex 'marriage' before he was for it, and his administration, which said the Defense of Marriage Act was constitutional before they said it was unconstitutional, has now flip-flopped again on the issue of same-sex 'marriage,' putting allegiance to extreme liberal social policies ahead of constitutional principle," Family Research Council President Tony Perkins said in a statement.

But there are signs of movement even among some high profile Republican leaders

Top Republicans sign brief supporting same-sex marriage

The Republican-penned friend of the court brief, which is designed to influence conservative justices on the high court, includes a number of top officials from the George W. Bush administration, Mitt Romney's former campaign manager and former GOP presidential candidate Jon Huntsman.

It is also at odds with the Republican Party's platform, which opposes same-sex marriage and defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman.

Still, with White House and high-profile Republican support, legal and legislative victories in a number of states and polls that show an increasing number of Americans support same sex-marriage, proponents feel that the winds of history are with them.

"What we've seen is accelerating and irrefutable momentum as Americans have come to understand who gay people are and why marriage matters," Wolfson said. "We now have a solid national majority and growing support across every demographic. We have leaders across the spectrum, including Republicans, all saying it's time to end marriage discrimination."

CNN's Peter Hamby, Ashley Killough and Bill Mears contributed to this report.

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President Tony Tan hosts reception for 2013 Special Olympics team

SINGAPORE: Singapore's Special Olympians had a special reception at the Istana on Saturday.

President Tony Tan Keng Yam and his wife hosted the athletes, officials and coaches who represented the nation at the 2013 Special Olympics World Winter Games, held in Pyeongchang, South Korea last month.

The athletes were invited to the Istana, after bringing home an unprecedented eight medals. Four of them were gold medals.

The medals were won in the short track speed skating category.

The skaters and the floor hockey team were introduced to the president, who paid tribute to the athletes.

President Tan said: "Not only was this an achievement, the team which we sent also won the first medals for Singapore at an international skating competition. Our athletes in this Special Olympics Winter Games, have, I believe, indeed been very brave and very courageous. They flew the Singapore flag high at the Special Olympics World Winter Games, and they were an inspiration to many Singaporeans."

- CNA/xq

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U.S. to 'rain mice' on tree snakes

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Boehner: No reason to block Keystone XL pipeline

WASHINGTON A new State Department report is the latest evidence that the long-delayed Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada should be approved, supporters say.

The draft report, issued Friday, finds there would be no significant environmental impact to most resources along the proposed route from western Canada to refineries in Texas. The report also said other options to get the oil from Canada to Gulf Coast refineries are worse for climate change.

The new report "again makes clear there is no reason for this critical pipeline to be blocked one more day," said House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio. After four years of what he called "needless delays," Boehner said it is time for President Barack Obama "to stand up for middle-class jobs and energy security and approve the Keystone pipeline."

Environmentalists see the State Department report in a vastly different light.

They say it was inadequate and failed to account for climate risks posed by the pipeline. The report also is based on a false premise, opponents say -- namely, that tar sands in western Canada will be developed for oil production regardless of whether the Keystone XL pipeline is approved.

"Americans are already suffering from the consequences of global warming, from more powerful storms like Hurricane Sandy to drought conditions currently devastating the Midwest and Southwest," said Daniel Gatti of the group Environment America. Production of oil from Canadian tar sands could add as much as 240 billion metric tons of global warming pollution to the atmosphere, Gatti said, a potential catastrophe that would hasten the arrival of the worst effects of global warming.

Gatti and other opponents said development of the vast tar sands is far from certain, despite assurances by the project's supporters.

"Tar sands can be stopped, and we are stopping it," Gatti said, citing a rally in Washington last month attended by an estimated 35,000 people. Project opponents also have blocked construction in Texas and Oklahoma and have been arrested outside the White House gate.

The pipeline plan has become a flashpoint in the U.S. debate over climate change. Republicans and business and labor groups have urged the Obama administration to approve the project as a source of jobs and a step toward North American energy independence. Environmental groups have been pressuring the president to reject the pipeline, saying it would carry "dirty oil" that contributes to global warming. They also worry about a spill.

The State Department review stopped short of recommending approval of the project, but it gave the Obama administration political cover if it chooses to endorse the pipeline in the face of opposition from many Democrats and environmental groups. State Department approval of the 1,700-mile pipeline is needed because it crosses a U.S. border.

The lengthy report says Canadian tar sands are likely to be developed, regardless of whether the U.S. approves the Keystone XL pipeline, which would carry oil through Montana, South Dakota, Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma.

The report acknowledges that development of tar sands in Alberta would create greenhouse gases but makes clear that other methods of transporting the oil -- including rail, trucks and barges -- also pose a risk to the environment.

The State Department analysis for the first time evaluated two options using rail: shipping the oil on trains to existing pipelines or to oil tankers. The report shows that those other methods would release more greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming than the pipeline. The Keystone XL pipeline, according to the report, would release annually the same amount of global warming pollution as 626,000 passenger cars.

A scenario that would move the oil on trains to mostly existing pipelines would release 8 percent more greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide than Keystone XL. That scenario would not require State Department approval because any new pipelines would not cross the U.S border.

Another alternative that relies mostly on rail to move the oil to the Canadian west coast, where it would be loaded onto oil tankers to the U.S. Gulf Coast, would result in 17 percent more greenhouse gas emissions, the report said.

In both alternatives, the oil would be shipped in rail cars as bitumen, a thick, tar-like substance, rather than as a liquid.

The State Department was required to conduct a new environmental analysis after the pipeline's operator, Calgary-based TransCanada, changed the project's route though Nebraska. The Obama administration blocked the project last year because of concerns that the original route would have jeopardized environmentally sensitive land in the Sand Hills region.

The administration later approved a southern section of the pipeline, from Cushing, Okla., to the Texas coast, as part of what Obama has called an "all of the above" energy policy that embraces a wide range of sources, from oil and gas to renewables such as wind and solar.

The draft report issued Friday begins a 45-day comment period, after which the State Department will issue a final environmental report before Secretary of State John Kerry makes a recommendation about whether the pipeline is in the national interest.

Kerry has promised a "fair and transparent" review of the plan and said he hopes to decide on the project in the "near term." Most observers do not expect a decision until summer at the earliest.

Canadian Natural Resource Minister Joe Oliver said Friday that Canada will respect the U.S. review process and noted the importance of the pipeline to the Canadian economy.

Obama's initial rejection of the pipeline last year went over badly in Canada, which relies on the United States for 97 percent of its energy exports.

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Sequester: What Will Happen, What Won't Happen

When it comes to critical elements of the sequester timeline, not much is known -- because federal agencies have been tight lipped.

Asked when specific effects will be felt, officials at three federal departments declined to discuss the timing of sequester cuts and their consequences. Some departments were waiting for President Obama's Friday night sequester order and subsequent guidance they expected to receive from the Office of Management and Budget before talking about what would and wouldn't happen and when.

Read more: 57 Terrible Consequences of the Sequester

"There's no calendar of dates for specific actions or cuts on specific dates," Department of Health and Human Services public affairs officer Bill Hall told ABC News. "Again, these cuts need to be applied equally across all agency programs, activities and projects. There will be wide variation on when impacts will occur depending on a given program."

Some cuts won't be felt for a while because they have to do with government layoffs, which require 30 days notice, in most cases.

For instance, the Federal Aviation Administration won't begin layoffs until at least April 7, one FAA official estimated.

But some cuts don't involve furloughs, and could conceivably be felt immediately.

The Department of Homeland Security declined to comment on the timeline of layoffs to cybersecurity contractors and first responders funded through states, as well as limited Coast Guard operations and cuts to FEMA disaster relief.

The Department of Housing and Urban Development said it could not comment on cuts to housing vouchers, rent assistance for AIDS patients, maintenance for housing projects.

Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg/Getty Imag

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The Department of Health and Human Services declined to discuss the specific timing of cuts to Head Start services, low-income mental-health services, AIDS/HIV testing, and inpatient substance-abuse treatment.

Read More: Automatic Cuts Could Hurt on Local Level

So even as the sequester hits, we still don't know when some of its worst effects will be felt.

Here's what we do know:

What Will Happen Saturday

      Air Force Training. At a briefing Friday, Deputy Defense Secretary Ashton Carter warned that "effective immediately, Air Force flying hours will be cut back."

More from Carter, via ABC News' Luis Martinez: "What does that mean for national security? What it means is that as the year goes on, apart from Afghanistan, apart from nuclear deterrence through two missions we are strictly protecting, the readiness of the other units to respond to other contingencies will gradually decline. That's not safe. And that we're trying to minimize that in every way we possibly can."

      Closed Doors at the Capitol. ABC News' Sunlen Miller reports that Capitol Police issued a memo announcing it would have to close some entrances to the Capitol, writing: "At this time it is anticipated that the U.S. Capitol Police will be required to close some entrance doors and exterior checkpoints, and either suspend or modify the hours of operation for some of the U.S. Capitol Complex posts located inside and outside of the CVC and Office Buildings."

      Capitol Janitor Furloughs. After President Obama warned that janitors at the Capitol will be furloughed, ABC News' Sunlen Miller reported that was not entirely true: The Senate sergeant at arms, Terrance Gainer, told ABC News that no full-time salaried Capitol Police officers would face furloughs or layoffs at this time. They will, however, see a "substantial reduction in overtime," Gainer told ABC News.

      Delayed Deployment for USS Truman Aircraft Carrier. This has already happened, the Associated Press reported Friday morning: "One of the Navy's premiere warships, the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, sits pier-side in Norfolk, Va., its tour of duty delayed. The carrier and its 5,000-person crew were to leave for the Persian Gulf on Feb. 8, along with the guided-missile cruiser USS Gettysburg."

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Syria war is everybody's problem

Syrians search for survivors and bodies after the Syrian regime attacked the city of Aleppo with missiles on February 23.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Frida Ghitis: We are standing by as Syria rips itself apart, thinking it's not our problem


• Beyond the tragedy in human terms, she says, the war damages global stability


• Ghitis: Syria getting more and more radical, jeopardizing forces of democracy


• Ghitis: Peace counts on moderates, whom we must back with diplomacy, training arms

Editor's note: Frida Ghitis is a world affairs columnist for The Miami Herald and World Politics Review. A former CNN producer and correspondent, she is the author of "The End of Revolution: A Changing World in the Age of Live Television." Follow her on Twitter: @FridaGColumns

(CNN) -- Last week, a huge explosion rocked the Syrian capital of Damascus, killing more than 50 people and injuring hundreds. The victims of the blast in a busy downtown street were mostly civilians, including schoolchildren. Each side in the Syrian civil war blamed the other.

In the northern city of Aleppo, about 58 people -- 36 of them children -- died in a missile attack last week. Washington condemned the regime of Bashar al-Assad; the world looked at the awful images and moved on.

Syria is ripping itself to pieces. The extent of human suffering is beyond comprehension. That alone should be reason enough to encourage a determined effort to bring this conflict to a quick resolution. But if humanitarian reasons were not enough, the international community -- including the U.S. and its allies -- should weigh the potential implications of allowing this calamity to continue.

Frida Ghitis

We've all heard the argument: It's not our problem. We're not the world's policeman. We would only make it worse.

This is not a plea to send American or European troops to fight in this conflict. Nobody wants that.

But before we allow this mostly hands-off approach to continue, we would do well to consider the potential toll of continuing with a failed policy, one that has focused in vain over the past two years searching for a diplomatic solution.

U. S. Secretary of State John Kerry has just announced that the U.S. will provide an additional $60 million in non-lethal assistance to the opposition. He has hinted that President Obama, after rejecting suggestions from the CIA and previous Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to arm Syrian rebels, might be ready to change course. And not a day too soon.

The war is taking longer than anyone expected. The longer it lasts, the more Syria is radicalized and the region is destabilized.

If you think the Syrian war is the concern of Syrians alone, think about other countries that have torn themselves apart over a long time. Consider Lebanon, Afghanistan or Somalia; each with unique circumstances, but with one thing in common: Their wars created enormous suffering at home, and the destructiveness eventually spilled beyond their borders. All of those wars triggered lengthy, costly refugee crises. They all spawned international terrorism and eventually direct international -- including U.S. -- intervention.

The uprising against al-Assad started two years ago in the spirit of what was then referred to -- without a hint of irony -- as the Arab Spring. Young Syrians marched, chanting for freedom and democracy. The ideals of equality, rule of law and human rights wafted in the air.

Al-Assad responded to peaceful protests with gunfire. Syrians started dying by the hundreds each day. Gradually the nonviolent protesters started fighting back. Members of the Syrian army started defecting.

The opposition's Free Syrian Army came together. Factions within the Syrian opposition took up arms and the political contest became a brutal civil war. The death toll has climbed to as many as 90,000, according to Kerry. About 2 million people have left their homes, and the killing continues with no end in sight.

In fairness to Washington, Europe and the rest of the international community, there were never easy choices in this war. Opposition leaders bickered, and their clashing views scared away would-be supporters. Western nations rejected the idea of arming the opposition, saying Syria already has too many weapons. They were also concerned about who would control the weaponry, including an existing arsenal of chemical and biological weapons, after al-Assad's fall.

These are all legitimate concerns. But inaction is producing the worst possible outcome.

The moderates, whose views most closely align with the West, are losing out to the better-armed Islamists and, especially, to the extremists. Moderates are losing the ideological debate and the battle for the future character of a Syria after al-Assad.

Radical Islamist groups have taken the lead. Young people are losing faith in moderation, lured by disciplined, devout extremists. Reporters on the ground have seen young democracy advocates turn into fervent supporters of dangerous groups such as the Nusra Front, which has scored impressive victories.

The U.S. State Department recently listed the Nusra Front, which has close ties to al Qaeda in Iraq and a strong anti-Western ideology, as a terrorist organization.

Meantime, countries bordering Syria are experiencing repercussions. And these are likely to become more dangerous.

Jordan, an important American ally, is struggling with a flood of refugees, as many as 10,000 each week since the start of the year. The government estimates 380,000 Syrians are in Jordan, a country whose government is under pressure from its own restive population and still dealing with huge refugee populations from other wars.

Turkey is also burdened with hundreds of thousands of refugees and occasional Syrian fire. Israel has warned about chemical weapons transfers from al-Assad to Hezbollah in Lebanon and may have already fired on a Syrian convoy attempting the move.

Lebanon, always perched precariously on the edge of crisis, lives with growing fears that Syria's war will enter its borders. Despite denials, there is evidence that Lebanon's Hezbollah, a close ally of al-Assad and of Iran, has joined the fighting on the side of the Syrian president. The Free Syrian Army has threatened to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon if it doesn't leave Syria.

The possible outcomes in Syria include the emergence of a failed state, stirring unrest throughout the region. If al-Assad wins, Syria will become an even more repressive country.

Al-Assad's survival would fortify Iran and Hezbollah and other anti-Western forces. If the extremists inside the opposition win, Syria could see factional fighting for many years, followed by anti-democratic, anti-Western policies.

The only good outcome is victory for the opposition's moderate forces. They may not be easy to identify with complete certainty. But to the extent that it is possible, these forces need Western support.

They need training, funding, careful arming and strong political and diplomatic backing. The people of Syria should know that support for human rights, democracy and pluralism will lead toward a peaceful, prosperous future.

Democratic nations should not avert their eyes from the killings in Syria which are, after all, a warning to the world.

Follow us on Twitter @CNNOpinion.

Join us on Facebook/CNNOpinion.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Frida Ghitis.

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Canada's Q4 GDP flat, growth at 1.8% for 2012

OTTAWA: Canada's economy grew 1.8 percent last year, a bit less than the central bank's forecast and down from 2.6 percent in 2011, the government statistics agency said on Friday.

Gross domestic product in the fourth quarter was up 0.2 percent, similar to the previous quarter's gains, as mining and oil and gas extraction was up and manufacturing recorded a significant decrease.

The arts and entertainment sector, transportation and warehousing as well as wholesale trade also declined while construction, the public sector, utilities and the finance and insurance sector increased in the last three months of 2012.

Household spending was up.

Business investment on machinery and equipment continued to be weak, with fewer purchases of heavy trucks and buses, and more aircraft and computer outlays. Following 12 months of anaemic government spending, it ticked up slightly in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Business inventories were "sharply lower" in the fourth quarter, said Statistics Canada. Manufacturers' and wholesalers' inventories were down while retailers' inventories rose.

Imports were down, and exports edged up. Disposable income inched up, but Canadians saved less.

- AFP/al

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Lawmakers leave before deadline

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With no pope, cardinals summoned for conclave

VATICAN CITY The Catholic Church has awoken with no pontiff following Benedict XVI's resignation, in which he pledged obedience to his successor and described himself as "simply a pilgrim" starting the final part of his life.

Now begins a period known as the "sede vacante" or "vacant see" — the transition between the end of one papacy and the election of a new pope.

During these few days — no more than 20 — a few key players take charge running the Holy See, guiding the College of Cardinals in their deliberations and organizing the conclave to elect Benedict's successor.

In one of his first official acts as dean, Cardinal Angelo Sodano on Friday officially summoned cardinals to Rome to participate in the conclave, a formality given that most are already here. Sodano sent official "convocation letters" to the cardinals' offices around the world Friday, along with electronic versions via email, summoning them to the Vatican.

And in one of his first official acts as camerlengo, or the chamberlain who actually runs the Holy See in the transition, Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone sealed Benedict's apartment in the Apostolic Palace on Thursday night. It will not be reopened until a new pope is elected.

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Pope Benedict XVI officially retires

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Pope leaving behind unfinished business

With the 8 p.m. Thursday end of Benedict's papacy, every department head in the Vatican lost his job — except for those whose offices are crucial for the smooth running of the transition period itself.

Cardinals on Monday will begin formal meetings to set the date for the conclave and discuss problems facing the church; major topics of discussion are expected to be the report Benedict commissioned into the leaks of sensitive Vatican documents and the dysfunction currently reigning in the Vatican bureaucracy.

The date for the conclave of cardinals to begin their deliberations has not yet been set, although one of Pope Benedict XVI's final acts before resigning his office was to amend the rules governing the election of a successor, allowing the cardinals to meet earlier than the usual 15-day transition between pontificates.

On Thursday, soon after Benedict left the Vatican on his final day as pope, Monsignor Carlo Maria Celli, a papal communications officer, hinted that the date could be March 11. That could not be immediately confirmed.

The date of the conclave's start is important because Holy Week begins March 24, with Easter Sunday March 31. In order to have a new pope in place for the church's most solemn liturgical period, he would need to be installed by Sunday, March 17

"What we talk about ... will be certainly the governance of the church and in that context there may be questions to people who did the report," said Chicago Cardinal Francis George. "I think we will find out a lot from a lot of sources to figure out what is necessary now to govern the church well here in Rome itself."

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Sequester Set to Trigger Billions in Cuts

Nobody likes the sequester.

Even the word is enough to send shivers of fiscal panic, or sheer political malaise, down the spines of seasoned politicians and news reporters. And today, the sequester will almost certainly happen, a year and a half after its inception amid the stalemate of the debt-limit crisis in 2011.

Automatic budget cuts will be triggered across federal agencies, as President Obama will be required to order sequestration into effect before midnight Friday night. The federal bureaucracy will implement its various plans to save the money it's required to save.

Read more: How Automatic Cuts Could Hurt at the Local Level

Now that the sequester will probably happen, here are some questions and answers about it:

1. HOW BIG IS IT?

The cuts were originally slated for $109 billion this year, but after the fiscal-cliff deal postponed the sequester for two months by finding alternate savings, the sequester will amount to $85 billion over the next 10 months. In 2013, nondefense programs will be cut by nine percent, and defense programs will be cut by 13 percent.

If carried out over 10 years (as designed), the sequester will amount to $1.2 trillion in total.

2. WHAT WILL BE CUT, SPARED?

Most government programs will be cut, with the cuts distributed evenly (by dollar amount) between defense and nondefense programs.

Sequester Countdown: The Reality of Budget Cuts Watch Video

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Some vital domestic entitlements, however, will be spared. Social Security checks won't shrink; nor will Veterans Administration programs. Medicare benefits won't get cut, but payments to providers will shrink by two percent. The Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), food stamps, Pell grants, and Medicaid will all be shielded from the sequester.

But lots of things will get cut. The Obama administration has warned that a host of calamities will befall vulnerable segments of the population.

Read more: Sequester May Revive 'Amtrak' Joe Biden

3. WHY DOES IT HAVE TO BE SO BAD?

Questions persist over whether or not it really does.

The sequester will mean such awful things because it forces agencies to cut indiscriminately, instead of simply stripping money from their overall budgets.

But some Republicans, including Oklahoma Sen. Tom Coburn, have suggested that federal agencies have plenty of flexibility to implement these cuts while avoiding the worst of the purported consequences. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal accused President Obama of trying to "distort" the severity of the sequester. The federal government will still spend more money than it did last year, GOP critics of sequester alarmism have pointed out.

Read more: 57 Terrible Consequences of the Sequester

The White House tells a different story.

According to the Office of Management and Budget, the sequestration law forces agency heads to cut the same percentage from each program. If that program is for TSA agents at airports, the sequester law doesn't care, and Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano can't do anything about it.

Agency heads do have some authority to "reprogram" funds, rearranging their money to circumvent the bad effects. An OMB official told ABC News that "these flexibilities are limited and do not provide significant relief due to the rigid nature of the way in which sequestration is required by law to be implemented."

4. WHEN WILL THE WORST OF IT START?

Not until April -- but some of the cuts could be felt before then.

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US pledges US$60m for Syria opposition

ROME: The United States on Thursday pledged US$60 million in "non-lethal" assistance for the Syrian political opposition to President Bashar al-Assad as well as the first direct US aid to rebel fighters in the form of food and medical assistance.

"The US will be providing an additional US$60 million in non-lethal assistance to support the efforts of the Syrian opposition coalition over the coming months," US Secretary of State John Kerry said after talks between the 11-nation Friends of Syria and the opposition in Rome.

"We will be sending medical supplies and food to the (rebel) Supreme Military Council, so there will be direct assistance," he added.

"All Syrians... must know that they can have a future," Kerry said.

A State Department official said the US$60 million (49 million euros) in aid would be used to help local councils and communities in liberated areas in Syria, to provide basic goods and services and "fulfil administrative functions including security, sanitation and education services."

The official said the new money was in addition to US$50 million in non-lethal support Washington has already provided to help Syrian opposition activists, including communications equipment.

That aid was provided through Turkey, while the United States has also contributed some US$380 million dollars in humanitarian aid through UN agencies and aid groups.

Asked about congressional approval of the funding, Kerry told journalists he was "very confident for rapid delivery".

He said the goal was to give a boost to the opposition and show Assad that he could not use violence to resolve the conflict.

"This is the beginning of the process that will change (Assad's) calculation."

The announcement of aid came as news broke of a car bomb explosion in a suburb of the flashpoint city of Homs that left "dead and wounded", according to state news agency SANA, which blamed "terrorists" for the blast.

Kerry had earlier met for about an hour with opposition leader Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib at the 16th-century Villa Madama on a hilltop above Rome.

The Rome talks come two days before an important meeting of the main opposition National Coalition on Saturday in Istanbul, where the umbrella group is to elect a prime minister and government to run parts of Syria seized from Assad's control.

A watchdog reported, meanwhile, that rebels had seized control of the Umayyad Mosque in the second city of Aleppo after days of fierce clashes that damaged the historic building.

Regime troops were forced to withdraw at dawn, taking up positions in buildings around the landmark structure, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Officials from the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates took part in the Rome talks, as well as EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.

The Syrian opposition -- which initially vowed a boycott -- had been lured back to the meeting after the US and Britain promised specific offers of help.

In Paris on Wednesday, Kerry said he wanted to hear from Khatib about how best to end the violence in Syria, where the United Nations says at least 70,000 have died and hundreds of thousands have been uprooted since the conflict broke out in March 2011.

US media including The New York Times and Washington Post have reported that the "non-lethal" aid to be provided to the opposition could include equipment such as vehicles, communications gear and night-vision goggles.

The New York Times also reported that a US mission training rebels at a base in the region was already under way.

Russia, Assad's most powerful supporter, has kept up pressure for the two sides in the Syrian conflict to sit down for negotiations.

In Moscow, French President Francois Hollande said ahead of a meeting with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that a political solution to the Syrian crisis was possible within weeks.

"I think that in the next few weeks we will manage to find a political solution that will stop the conflict from escalating," Hollande told Echo of Moscow radio station in comments translated into Russian.

Hollande stressed Russia's key role as a member of the UN Security Council, where it has vetoed resolutions that would have put pressure on Assad to end hostilities.

"We must finally start the process of political dialogue that has not yet started on the territory of Syria."

"President Putin and I both understand all the seriousness of the situation. And even though our positions at the moment differ, we want to find the best solution for Syria."

- AFP/xq

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Five major psychiatric disorders linked in new study

(CBS News) An international group of scientists have identified genetic links between five major psychiatric disorders, including autism, ADHD, bipolar disorder, depression and schizophrenia.

Their study, published in the medical journal Lancet, could change how we understand and treat the illnesses.

For the first time, researchers were able to see if there are any genetic variants that are linked to not just one of those disorders, but to all five. "And there were," Dr. Jordan Smoller, one of the lead researchers in the study, said on "CBS This Morning."

Smoller, a psychiatry professor at Massachusetts General Hospital, explained, "There were several regions of the genome, several variations that seemed to increase the risk for all five. It's important to realize, of course, that this is a small part of the genetic component of these disorders, but it points to a shared biology."

The researchers took this approach because disorders often cluster in families. Smoller added, "It's not only that, we sometimes see the same family being affected with multiple kinds of disorders, so there was some evidence that there would be shared links, but this is the first time we've been able to see specific DNA variations."

Will the study affect how we treat these disorders?

"Well, not immediately," Smoller said. "But one of the interesting findings from the study was that genes involved in how calcium channels operate in the brain. These are important for how brain cells communicate. It seemed to be associated with all of these disorders, so it raises the possibility that treatments that target those channels might have broad effects."

But just because you have family members that have one of these disorders doesn't mean you will develop a disorder, Smoller explained. "We do know that all psychiatric disorders do seem to run in families to a degree," he said. "We also know that genes are not destiny. It is not the entire picture. But the hope is that we're going learn something fundamental about how these disorders occur."

Asked if eventually predicting these disorders is possible, Smoller said, "We're not there yet, but the more we learn about the genetic and non-genetic causes of these disorders, the better position we're going to be to know who might be at risk and what we might be able to do."

For more with Smoller, watch the video in the player above.

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Why Should We Care? The Politics of Picking a Pope

Feb 28, 2013 9:34am

                             (Image Credit: L’Osservatore Romano/Vatican/Getty Images)

ANALYSIS

VATICAN CITY – In a U.S presidential campaign, the New Hampshire primary is thought of as “retail politics,” where the candidates actually get to meet and have contact with real voters.

That’s Walmart, compared to a Vatican conclave. This process is more of a boutique.

READ MORE: Benedict XVI Begins Final Day as Pope

All the voters and all the viable candidates can fit into one room. In some cases, they have known each other – or known “of” each other – for years. In some cases, they have worked with (or against) each other in the daily management of the church.

It’s not just the fancy costumes, the churchly rituals or the sweep of history that makes this process so fascinating. There’s also the sheer human drama of it all.

VIDEO: Pope Benedict’s Last Sunday Prayer Service

For the 115 men planning to take part in the conclave to elect a pope, all of whom have devoted their lives to the Catholic church, this choice might well be the most important contribution they make. A lifetime of service reduced to a single election.

It’s also crucial for the world’s 1.2 billion Roman Catholics.

The new pope will set the tone of the institution on issues of life and death: abortion, birth control, genetic medicine, euthanasia and more.

He’ll frame the church’s role in the moral debate about the way we live our lives, as individuals and as families. Divorce, gay rights, adoption, education, the role of women (not least in the church) are all areas in which previous pope’s have exerted tremendous influence.

He’ll instantly be the most powerful spiritual leader in the world, a global ambassador for Christian values (however he and the rest of the church interpret that mandate).

9 Men Who Could Replace Pope Benedict XVI

Will he be able to win over a wayward flock? Many have left the church, bitterly disappointed by the betrayal of pedophile priests, the mismanagement of arrogant administrators or even what they perceive as the institution’s irrelevance in the modern era.

At its best, the church is a voice of compassion and social justice. But it has also, at times, been a voice of intolerance, as well as a bastion of the status quo.

On one level, this is local politics. Each voting cardinal – even the ones who live thousands of miles away – has a titular church, an actual church here in Rome assigned to them where they officially serve as the pastor. So the conclave represents the Roman clergy’s electing the next Bishop of Rome.

At another level, it’s global. Prelates from 50 countries do their best to discern (through the guidance of the Holy Spirit) how to make the universal church thrive in a new millennium.

Win or lose in a presidential election, we all know it’ll start all over again in four years’ time. There are checks and balances too, so, for better or worse, “change” tends to be largely a campaign slogan.

It would be sheer exaggeration to say any presidential contest were a battle for the soul of the United States.

But in a very real way that’s what this process is for the world’s largest church.

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Benedict: Pope aware of his flaws?

Pope Benedict XVI delivers his last Angelus Blessing to thousands of pilgrims gathered in Saint Peter's Square on February 24.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Sister Mary Ann Walsh: Pope Benedict acknowledged that he made mistakes


• Walsh: In firestorm over scholarly quotes about Islam, he went to great lengths to atone


• Walsh: Similarly, he quickly reversed a decision that had angered Jews and repaired ties


• Even his stepping down is a nod to his humanity and his love of the church, she says

Editor's note: Sister Mary Ann Walsh is director of media relations for the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops and a member of the Sisters of Mercy of the Americas Northeast Regional Community. She is a former foreign correspondent at Catholic News Service (CNS) in Rome and the editor of "John Paul II: A Light for the World," "Benedict XVI: Essays and Reflections on his Papacy," and "From Pope John Paul II to Benedict XVI."

(CNN) -- One of the Bible's paradoxical statements comes from St. Paul's Epistle to the Galatians: "Power is made perfect in infirmity."

The poetic statement proclaims that when we are weak, we are strong. Pope Benedict XVI's stepping down from what many consider one of the most powerful positions in the world proves it. In a position associated with infallibility -- though that refers to formal proclamations on faith and morals -- the pope declares his weakness.

Sister Mary Ann Walsh

His acceptance of frailty speaks realistically about humanity: We grow old, weaken, and eventually die. A job, even one guided by the Holy Spirit, as we Roman Catholics believe, can become too much for us.

Acceptance of human frailty has marked this papacy. We all make mistakes, but the pope makes them on a huge stage.

He was barely into his papacy, for example, when he visited Regensburg, Germany, where he once taught theology. Like many a professor, he offered a provocative statement to get the conversation going. To introduce the theme of his lecture, the pope quoted from an account of a dialogue between the Byzantine Emperor Manuel II Paleologus and an unnamed Muslim scholar, sometime near the end of the 14th century -- a quote that was misinterpreted by some as a condemnation of Mohammed and Islam.

Opinion: 'Gay lobby' behind pope's resignation? Not likely

Twice, the pope emphasized that he was quoting someone else's words. Unfortunately, the statement about Islam was taken as insult, not a discussion opener, and sparked rage throughout the Muslim world.

The startled pope had to explain himself. He apologized and traveled two months later to Istanbul's Blue Mosque, where he stood shoeless in prayer beside the Grand Mufti of Istanbul. Later he hosted Muslim leaders at the Vatican at the start of a Catholic-Muslim forum for dialogue. It was a human moment -- a mistake, an apology and atonement -- all round.

A similar controversy erupted when he tried to bring the schismatic Society of St. Pius X back into the Roman Catholic fold.

In a grand gesture toward reconciliation, he lifted the excommunication of four of its bishops, unaware that one, Richard Williamson, was a Holocaust denier. This outraged many Jews. Subsequently the Vatican said the bishop had not been vetted, and in a bow to modernity said officials at least should have looked him up on the Internet.

In humble response, Benedict reiterated his condemnation of anti-Semitism and told Williamson that he must recant his Holocaust views to be fully reinstated. Again, his admission of a mistake and an effort to mend fences.

News: Scandal threatens to overshadow pope's final days

Pope Benedict XVI came from a Catholic Bavarian town. Childhood family jaunts included trips to the shrine of the Black Madonna, Our Lady of Altotting. He entered the seminary at the age of 13. He became a priest, scholar and theologian. He lived his life in service to the church. Even in resigning from the papacy, he embraces the monastic life to pray for a church he has ever loved.

With hindsight, his visit to the tomb of 13th century Pope Celestine V, a Benedictine monk who resigned from the papacy eight centuries before, becomes poignant.

In 2009, on a visit to Aquila, Italy, Benedict left at Celestine's tomb the pallium, a stole-like vestment that signifies episcopal authority, that Benedict had worn for his installation as pope. The gesture takes on more meaning as the monkish Benedict steps down.

We expect the pope to be perfect. Catholics hold him to be the vicar of Christ on earth. He stands as a spiritual leader for much of the world. Statesmen visit him from around the globe. He lives among splendid architecture, in the shadow of the domed St. Peter's Basilica. All testify to an almost surreal omnipotence.

Complete coverage of the pope's resignation

In this world, however, walked a vulnerable, human person. And in a paradox of life, his most human moment -- giving up the power of office -- may prove to be his most potent, delivering a message that, as St. Paul noted many centuries ago, "Power is made perfect in infirmity."

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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Mary Ann Walsh.

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Portugal seizes 79 tonnes of meat containing horse

LISBON: Portuguese authorities said they had launched fraud proceedings after seizing 79 tonnes of wholesale food and thousands of packaged meals that contained horsemeat despite not being labelled with it.

The 79 tonnes of "meat and meat-based products" were seized in plants that processed, packaged and distributed meat to supermarkets, the government's Economic and Food Safety Authority said in a statement.

Authorities also seized nearly 19,000 packets of food "such as lasagne, hamburgers, canneloni and meatballs" in retail and distribution outlets, said the statement published on Tuesday.

Five criminal cases of fraud were opened over the seizures, it added, without giving further derails.

A vast food scandal has erupted across Europe after horsemeat was found in supposedly beef ready-made meals and burgers in Britain and Ireland.

Among various companies implicated in the scandal, Swiss food giant Nestle last week withdrew dishes destined for restaurants in Portugal, Spain and Italy.

- AFP/xq

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Why Apple may owe you $5

By Doug Gross, CNN updated 12:41 PM EST, Tue February 26, 2013 | Filed under: Mobile

Kids playing TapFish, a virtual aquarium game, racked up hundreds in unexpected bills, parents claimed.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Apple settles lawsuit over in-game iTunes purchases by kids


• Parents claimed kids racked up huge bills for "freemium" games like "TapFish"


• Apple will offer credits or cash refunds for people who can show their bills


• Anyone can get $5 in iTunes credit, and parents with bigger claims can receive more

(CNN) -- Apple has settled a lawsuit filed by parents who say their kids downloaded free games from the mobile App Store and then proceeded to rack up hefty bills buying in-game extras.

Under the proposed settlement of a 2011 class-action lawsuit, Apple will offer a $5 iTunes gift card to any U.S. parent who claims that their child paid for extras without their knowledge. The company will offer larger credits, or cash refunds, for people who can show that their bills were larger than $5.

On Friday, the deal will go before a federal judge, who is expected to approve it.

The proposed settlement, first reported by legal-news site Law360 and tech blog GigaOM, does not state how much Apple will pay overall or how many users are affected. Apple will create a website for people interested in cashing in on the settlement and send an e-mail notification to roughly 23 million customers.

People who want more than $5 must show that a larger amount was racked up by their kids in any 45-day period. Those who can show more than $30 in purchases may choose a cash refund instead of an Apple credit. Purchases made until the date of the settlement would be eligible for refunds.

An Apple spokesman said the company would have no comment on the proposed settlement.

In the past few years, this "freemium" business model has become increasingly popular in mobile and social gaming. Zynga games like "FarmVille" led the way for games that are free to download and play but then require players to pay small fees for in-game upgrades or premium content.

Those fees can add up quickly. The lawsuit came after media reports of several cases in which kids' in-game purchases led to parental sticker shock.

Kevin Ofel, an editor at GigaOM, wrote that he got a 2010 iTunes bill for $375 after his kids spent money on the game "TapFish," a virtual aquarium that can be loosely described as "FarmVille" under water.

The lure of digital fish is apparently a strong one. A Florida father reported that his 7-year-old amassed a $613 bill playing the same game.

On its iTunes page, the latest version of the game, "TapFish 2," lists "top in-app purchases" ranging from 99 cents up to $19.99. The game is listed as appropriate for children 4 and older.

The settlement notes that Apple offers paid content on free games that are rated appropriate for children older than 4, 9 and 12 in its App Store.

In 2011, Apple revised its in-app purchasing policy, requiring users to re-enter their account password before paying for enhancements within games. The lawsuit was filed after that policy change, with plaintiffs arguing that it didn't go far enough since minors could still make purchases.

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Gun control fight entering final round in Senate

Senate lawmakers this week are beginning what appears to be their final push to pass gun control legislation in response to the deadly massacre at a Newtown, Conn., elementary school in December.

On Wednesday, Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., is chairing a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on the "Assault Weapons Ban of 2013," which she introduced last month. The following day, the Judiciary Committee plans to consider the assault weapons ban, which would also ban high-capacity ammunition magazines, as well as three other bills. 

The assault weapons ban is seen as having virtually no chance to get through Congress. The decision by Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., to nonetheless consider it in committee signals that the Senate is taking a piecemeal approach to passing gun control legislation, rather than trying to pass a comprehensive bill. That's because the assault weapons bill, which has a good chance to clear the committee, would almost certainly drag down the other gun control legislation if it were part of a comprehensive package presented to the full Senate. Feinstein herself acknowledged this week that her bill faced "very tough" prospects on the Senate floor.

The other gun control bills scheduled to be taken up Thursday are a Leahy-backed measure to combat illegal arms trafficking; a bill sponsored by Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., focused on school safety; and a bill mandating universal background checks sponsored by Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.  

Because Judiciary Committee rules allow any senator to ask for a one-week delay, it is likely the markup will be postponed until March 7. (A spokesman for the ranking member of the committee, Sen. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, said in a statement that no decision had been made but that "there are some shenanigans going on" because a final version of Schumer's bill has yet to be introduced.) The Judiciary Committee will put together final versions of the bills and vote on them, and the Senate leadership can then decide how to bring them to the Senate floor for consideration.

Schumer has been working with Sen. Tom Coburn, R-Okla., and two other senators to reach compromise on the background check bill. The parties have reached an impasse over the issue of whether gun sellers should be forced to keep a record of gun sales.

By law, the federal government must destroy evidence of background checks within 24 hours - otherwise, some argue, the government would have a de facto federal gun registry. Schumer thus argues that sellers should be required to maintain a record of the sale.

The idea is that if a gun is used in a crime and is traced to the seller, the seller would be able to produce a record of the transaction. That incentivizes the seller to perform the background check. That's because he would be in trouble if he sold the weapon to someone who the government could show would have failed a background check.

Jim Kessler of the centrist-Democratic think tank Third Way, who was formerly with Americans for Gun Safety, called the records "critically important."

"It is very difficult to enforce a universal background check law without being able to ask someone to prove that they did the background check," he said.

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Pope Thanks Crowd in Final Address

On his final full day as the leader of the Roman Catholic Church, Pope Benedict XVI thanked a huge crowd for respecting his historic decision to step down and told them that God will continue to guide the church.

"The decision I have made, after much prayer, is the fruit of a serene trust in God's will and a deep love of Christ's Church," Benedict said to cheers in his last public words as pope.

Benedict, 85, is the first pope to resign in 600 years. He told the crowd today that he was "deeply grateful for the understanding, support and prayers of so many of you, not only here in Rome, but also throughout the world."

Pope Benedict's Last Sunday Prayer Service

Under sunny skies on this late February day, hundreds of thousands of people, some waving flags, some banners, flocked to Vatican City to see Benedict make a final lap around St. Peter's Square. Throughout his eight-year papacy, Benedict has conducted a weekly audience from St. Peter's. Before delivering his last papal address today, Benedict waved to the festive group of supporters as he toured the square in his glass-encased popemobile.

The city of Rome planned for more than 200,000 people to head to the Vatican for today's event. Streets around St. Peter's were blocked off to cars as pedestrians from around the world headed to the square.

The Conclave: Secret World of Picking the Pope Watch Video

Papal Appearance: Faithful Flock to Saint Peter's Square Watch Video

9 Men Who Could Replace Pope Benedict XVI

The conclave to elect Benedict's replacement will start next month at a date yet to be determined. Benedict issued a decree known as a "motu poprio" that will allow cardinals to convene the conclave sooner than the March 15 date that would have been mandated under the old rules.

Benedict today asked the faithful to pray for him and for the new pope.

"My heart is filled with thanksgiving to God who ever watches over his church," Benedict said.

The German-born Benedict, who had appeared frail at times in recent months, seemed more energized in his remarks today. He has said he will devote more time to prayer and meditation after he leaves the papacy.

Benedict will meet Thursday with his cardinals in the morning and then flies by helicopter at 5 p.m. to Castel Gandolfo, the papal residence south of Rome. Benedict will greet parishioners there from the palazzo's balcony, his final public act as pope.

Then, at 8 p.m., the exact time at which his retirement becomes official, the Swiss Guards standing outside the doors of the palazzo at Castel Gandolfo will go off duty, their service protecting the head of the Catholic Church finished.

In retirement, Benedict will continue to wear white and will be called "Pope Emeritus," or the "Supreme Roman Pontiff Emeritus" or "Your Holiness," the Vatican announced Tuesday. Benedict will ditch his trademark red shoes, opting for a pair of brown shoes given to him on a trip to Mexico. But he will still reside on Vatican grounds in a former nunnery.

Benedict's final days as pope have been marked by controversy. For nearly a week now Italian newspapers speculated that Benedict really resigned because of a dossier he was given detailing a sex and blackmail scandal in the Catholic Church. The Italian media news reports do not state any attribution.

It turns out a dossier does exist. The Vatican spokesman Monday underscored that the contents of the dossier are known only to the pope and his investigators, three elderly prelates whom the Italian papers have nicknamed "the 007 cardinals."

But the dossier itself will remain "For the Pope's Eyes Only."

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Vatican 'Gay lobby'? Probably not

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Benedict XVI not stepping down under pressure from 'gay lobby,' Allen says


• Allen: Benedict is a man who prefers the life of the mind to the nuts and bolts of government


• However, he says, much of the pope's time has been spent putting out fires

Editor's note: John L. Allen Jr. is CNN's senior Vatican analyst and senior correspondent for the National Catholic Reporter.

(CNN) -- Suffice it to say that of all possible storylines to emerge, heading into the election of a new pope, sensational charges of a shadowy "gay lobby" (possibly linked to blackmail), whose occult influence may have been behind the resignation of Benedict XVI, would be right at the bottom of the Vatican's wish list.

Proof of the Vatican's irritation came with a blistering statement Saturday complaining of "unverified, unverifiable or completely false news stories," even suggesting the media is trying to influence the papal election.

Two basic questions have to be asked about all this. First, is there really a secret dossier about a network of people inside the Vatican who are linked by their sexual orientation, as Italian newspaper reports have alleged? Second, is this really why Benedict XVI quit?

John L. Allen Jr.

The best answers, respectively, are "maybe" and "probably not."

It's a matter of record that at the peak of last year's massive Vatican leaks crisis, Benedict XVI created a commission of three cardinals to investigate the leaks. They submitted an eyes-only report to the pope in mid-December, which has not been made public.

It's impossible to confirm whether that report looked into the possibility that people protecting secrets about their sex lives were involved with the leaks, but frankly, it would be surprising if it didn't.

There are certainly compelling reasons to consider the hypothesis. In 2007, a Vatican official was caught by an Italian TV network on hidden camera arranging a date through a gay-oriented chat room, and then taking the young man back to his Vatican apartment. In 2010, a papal ceremonial officer was caught on a wiretap arranging liaisons through a Nigerian member of a Vatican choir. Both episodes played out in full public view, and gave the Vatican a black eye.

Pope Benedict XVI

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In that context, it would be a little odd if the cardinals didn't at least consider the possibility that insiders leading a double life might be vulnerable to pressure to betray the pope's confidence. That would apply not just to sex, but also potential conflicts of other sorts too, such as financial interests.

Vatican officials have said Benedict may authorize giving the report to the 116 cardinals who will elect his successor, so they can factor it into their deliberations. The most immediate fallout is that the affair is likely to strengthen the conviction among many cardinals that the next pope has to lead a serious house-cleaning inside the Vatican's bureaucracy.

It seems a stretch, however, to suggest this is the real reason Benedict is leaving. For the most part, one should probably take the pope at his word, that old age and fatigue are the motives for his decision.

That said, it's hard not to suspect that the meltdowns and controversies that have dogged Benedict XVI for the last eight years are in the background of why he's so tired. In 2009, at the height of another frenzy surrounding the lifting of the excommunication of a Holocaust-denying traditionalist bishop, Benedict dispatched a plaintive letter to the bishops of the world, voicing hurt for the way he'd been attacked and apologizing for the Vatican's mishandling of the situation.

Even if Benedict didn't resign because of any specific crisis, including this latest one, such anguish must have taken its toll. Benedict is a teaching pope, a man who prefers the life of the mind to the nuts and bolts of government, yet an enormous share of his time and energy has been consumed trying to put out internal fires.

It's hard to know why Benedict XVI is stepping off the stage, but I doubt it is because of a "gay lobby."

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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of John L. Allen Jr.

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Impact of China's demand for iron ore on shipping industry

SINGAPORE : China's appetite for iron ore may be among the few bright spots for the shipping industry this year, although there are still many empty vessels plying the waterways.

Analysts have said that those unable to wait out the recovery are likely to go under.

After years of low freight rates, overcapacity and few cargoes, dry bulk shipping firms are finally seeing the light on the horizon.

Credit Suisse predicts China's appetite for iron ore will grow 11 per cent this year, fuelling a pick-up for shippers.

Credit Suisse expects this to spur global commodity demand to 5.3 per cent, from 4.8 per cent last year.

Mercator Lines (Singapore) believes 2013 may be a turning point.

During its third quarter, the dry bulk shipping company was forced to lower its debt by selling one vessel, and terminating settlement agreements with two of its chartered vessels in advance.

Shalabh Mittal, CEO of Mercator Lines (Singapore), said: "We have seen the worst in 2012. 2013 will be more of consolidation...We have already seen the current freight rates are better than 2012's average. So even though it is a very small increase from a very small base, the sentiments reflect that the growth in trade is happening."

But that does not mean a quick turnaround for the global market.

Industry watchers expect overcapacity rates to remain high.

ICAP Shipping said there is still an oversupply of about 16 per cent in the dry cargo market.

Christopher Jones, director of Sale & Purchase at ICAP Shipping, said: "This year, we do not see too much of an improvement. One of the key factors is the oversupply of tonnage in all sectors.

"Freight rates are still lolloping and we seize on any kind of upturn, but analysing ore trades into China for example, they are very slack at the moment because of the high price of iron ore."

ICAP Shipping added that unless more older vessels exit the market by 'scrapping', or the demolition of old ships, market fundamentals are not going to return to equilibrium anytime soon.

Meanwhile, others unable to hold out will either have to fold or find a more profitable business to operate in, like oil and gas.

Patrik Wheater, editor of Shipping World & Shipbuilder, said: "We are seeing a lot of diversification in the shipbuilding side. Shipyards, either building bulk carriers, tankers, that market is not as good as it once was, so they need to diversify and look at other segments and the oil and gas segment is a saving grace for some yards.

"Although last year 900 Chinese shipyards closed, more shipyards are likely to close in China this year."

So far in 2013, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the key benchmark for international freight rates, has risen 6.4 per cent, a minor recovery at least, from last year's near 60 per cent slump.

- CNA/ms

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Could your child be a bully?

Boys and girls use physical violence to exert their power, researchers say.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• A sociologist describes bullying in schools as "social combat"


• Students are fighting to improve their social status through violence or rumors


• Bullies are often bullied themselves as they fight to the top, experts say

Editor's note: Don't miss the premiere of "The Bully Effect" on "AC360" at 10 p.m. ET Thursday, Feburary 28. And visit CNN.com Health on Wednesday, February 27, for our story on how technology has changed bullying.

(CNN) -- Eva was a bully. Tall for her age, she used her height to intimidate her peers. She made fun of those without designer clothes and got suspended several times for fighting.

She was also well-liked, outgoing, funny -- and a victim of bullying herself.

"When you're in junior high, you're just trying to figure out who you are," the 24-year-old Los Angeles resident remembers. She says she bullied others because she was, as were most kids, insecure.

As a parent, you probably have a picture in your head of the kid you'd vote Most Likely To Bully Others. He's burly, wears a letter (or leather) jacket and has been a senior longer than most students are in high school.

But experts say the bullies tormenting students nowadays aren't like the ones we see on the big screen. It's not just a small group of jocks, or the loner stoner pushing kids into lockers between periods. It can be almost anyone, at any time. And the most likely targets of bullies? The bullies themselves.

"AC360": Fighting for your bullied child

Sociologist Robert Faris calls it "social combat." He says the majority of bullying takes place in the middle of a school's social hierarchy, where students are jostling with each other for higher status.

Think of it like a giant game of king of the hill. Each kid is struggling to make it to the top, not afraid to step on others to get there. The closer you get to being king, the more vicious the competition gets between rivals.

"Bullying works," Faris says simply. "When kids pick on other kids, their status increases."

Faris teamed up with CNN's "AC360" in 2011 to study bullying at a high school in Long Island, New York. Researchers asked more than 700 students about their friendship circles and bullying behaviors. Faris has also completed similar studies in rural North Carolina -- where the demographics were different, but the results were the same.

Faris found 56% of students surveyed were involved in aggression, victimization or both at any given time. The main motive behind a student's bullying was to increase his or her popularity. The higher a student rose on the social ladder, the more likely they were to bully others -- and to be bullied themselves.

"There's always some tension in these friendship groups," Faris says. "Who's closer to whom and who's hanging out together, and I think that's what's driving a lot of these kids."

The same is true for middle-school students, according to UCLA psychology professor Jaana Juvonen, who's been studying bullying since the mid-1990s.

Juvonen and her team recently followed more than 1,800 students through seventh and eighth grade to determine how physical aggression and the spreading of rumors played a part in social prominence.

"What we've learned about bullying during the last decade or so is that it takes many forms," Juvonen says. "Some of these forms are extremely hard to detect. They're covert."

Bullying over food allergies

Administrators have cracked down on physical aggression in schools, enforcing zero tolerance policies for fighting between students. But Juvonen says that has led to subtler forms of bullying.

Rumors -- most often about a student's sexuality or insulting family members -- play a big role, according to Juvonen's research.

Faris recalls he got his "ass kicked" regularly as a child. Two brothers used hunt him down every day after school as he walked home from the bus stop.

But he says a daily beating was much less painful than the isolation he felt when his family moved across the country and he couldn't seem to fit in. "That was much harder to deal with than a bloody nose," he remembers.

In his later research, Faris found friends often exclude each other from gossip sessions or parties to put down a rival and boost their own status. Social media has also increased the prominence of this abstract form of bullying.

"The status competition is always there; there's no break from it," he says. "They go home and they get online and they see their friends doing things together and they're not invited, or worse, people are harassing them."

If the 2004 movie "Mean Girls" taught us anything, it's that girls are the queens of covert bullying; no one could make you feel as badly about the way you look as the popular clique. Juvonen's study, however, found boys and girls spread rumors to boost their social status -- and that both genders use physical aggression to assert power.

Eva knows this firsthand. She and her friends used to "jump" other girls, pulling their hair or punching them just because they talked to the wrong guy.

What really makes schools safer?

"I look back and shake my head," says Eva, who asked CNN not to use her last name because she's applying for medical school next year. But "when you're in elementary school and junior high, there's nothing else. We don't have responsibilities. We don't have skills. We buy candy and do homework."

"Part of the problem here is that kids are kind of stuck in a cage," Faris agrees. "They don't have formal roles and responsibilities. ... They have to work status out for themselves."

And if we put adults in a similar situation, he says, we'd see the same behavior.

For that reason, Faris advocates programs and activities that de-emphasize social status and re-emphasize the qualities of a good friend. He hopes that one day students will leave high school with a small group of close friends, rather than the 300 or 400 they know on Facebook.

Tips for parents

1. Be a good example -- kids often learn bullying behavior from their parents.

2. Teach your child what it means to be a good friend.

3. Make your home a safe haven for kids after school.

4. Use teachable moments on TV to show the power of bystanders.

5. Listen. Don't be in denial about incidents that are brought to your attention.

Juvonen says anti-bullying programs should focus on bystanders -- teaching kids that watching is just as bad as doing the bullying yourself. Studies in Canada have shown, she says, that if a child intervenes, the bullying incident stops within seconds.

Juvonen suggests parents use teachable moments on TV or in the news to show children right from wrong in a bullying situation. "They could be the ones pointing out to their kids that they have a lot of power as bystanders," she says.

Juvonen knows it's unreasonable to expect a child to be brave on his or her own; no one wants to become the next victim. So she suggests teaching kids about the weight of a group.

"Bullying involves this imbalance of power where the bully has the high status and is using this status," she says. "You can try to offset the power balance by telling kids to join one another as they try to intervene."

Parents also need to be aware of how easy it is for children to get sucked in to this social combat, Juvonen says. They can't be in denial about incidents that are brought to their attention.

"Anyone in that situation should be asking, 'What's going on?' 'What is it about these situations that brings about this kind of behavior?' " Parents should be having frequent conversations about what's happening at school, know who their children are hanging out with and keep an eye out for warning signs that something's not quite right, she says.

"The parent's role is really to be there as a buffer, be the one who listens."

Rejection, bullying are risk factors among shooters

Before she was a bully, Eva was a victim, she says. Older kids would call her names or hold her down to show they were stronger. She's the baby in the family, she says, and her parents didn't have time to pay attention to what was going on.

"(Bullying) comes from home, from family members," she says. "We hear our cousins and uncles talking crap about someone. We think it's funny. We think it's cool."

Eva never faced consequences for bullying, other than her suspensions. She believes that if someone had sat her down and told her that bullying was wrong, she would have listened. For years, she worried that one of her former victims would invite her on the "Maury Show" for a face-to-face showdown. She still feels badly about the pain she inflicted.

"I can't take it back," she says. "But if I could do it all over again, I wouldn't do what I did."

Did you ever bully anyone? Share your story in the comments below or on iReport.

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